Home › Auto › Auto loan delinquency
Direct answer: The data show stress, not a forecast. Auto debt was $1.713 trillion in Q2 2026, and 3.00% of balances (annualized) newly went 90+ days late, up from 2.93% a year earlier. Fitch's subprime 60+ day index hit a record 6.65% in October 2025.
By the numbers: The average new-car payment hit a record $787 in Q3 2026, and 25.5% of new-car loans ran 84 months or longer. Source: Edmunds, Oct. 1, 2026
“Still, new delinquencies for auto loans and credit cards remain at elevated levels, a trend we'll continue to monitor.” — Joelle Scally, New York Fed, Aug. 11, 2026
Updated 2026-10-19
$1.713 trillion at the end of June 2026, up $28 billion in the quarter and $58 billion in a year, per the New York Fed. The next update (Q3 2026) is due in early November.
We don't forecast. The published numbers: serious (90+ day) delinquency flow was 3.00% annualized in Q2 2026 vs 2.93% a year earlier, and Fitch's subprime auto ABS 60+ day index set a record 6.65% in October 2025. Prime borrowers were at 0.37% in that Fitch data.
$787 a month for a financed new car in Q3 2026 (Edmunds), on $44,664 financed at 7.0% APR. Experian's Q2 2026 averages: $765 new and $542 used.
25.5% of financed new-car purchases in Q3 2026 had terms of 84 months or longer, a record, up from 21.8% a year earlier (Edmunds).
On $44,664 at 7.0% APR, 84 months lowers the payment by about $210 a month but adds about $3,560 in interest ($11,960 vs $8,400).
Among lenders whose June 30, 2026 10-Qs state a 30+ day rate: Ally 4.80%, Capital One 4.76%, Toyota Motor Credit 2.42%. Lenders define portfolios differently, so compare with care.
We couldn't find a primary source for that viral claim, so we don't use it. The New York Fed reports 4.7% of all household debt was in some stage of delinquency in Q2 2026.
As of Oct. 19, 2026 · New York Fed Q3 data due early Nov. 2026
| Measure | Figure | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auto loan debt | $1.713 trillion | Q2 2026; +$28B in the quarter, +$58B in a year | New York Fed |
| New auto loans originated | $211 billion | Q2 2026 | New York Fed |
| Flow into serious (90+ day) delinquency | 3.00% | annualized share of balances; 2.93% in Q2 2025 | New York Fed |
| Subprime auto ABS 60+ days late (Fitch) | 6.65% (record) | October 2025; 6.23% a year earlier; prime 0.37% | Fitch via Reuters |
| Average new-car payment | $787 | Q3 2026; $756 a year earlier; 21.2% pay $1,000+ | Edmunds |
| Average new amount financed | $44,664 | Q3 2026 at 7.0% APR; avg term 70.5 months | Edmunds |
| New-car loans 84+ months | 25.5% | Q3 2026; 21.8% a year earlier | Edmunds |
| Underwater trade-ins (new purchases) | 29.6%, avg $6,884 | Q2 2026 | Edmunds negative equity |
| Average used-car loan term | 67.9 months | Q2 2026; new 69.5 months | Experian |
| Average U.S. light-vehicle age | 12.8 years | 2025 (latest S&P release) | S&P Global Mobility |
| H1 2026 subprime loans ending when the car is 12+ years old | over 30% | vs 7% at end-2019; as reported from Breakingviews (paywalled) | Reuters Breakingviews |
Fitch's index covers loans packaged into asset-backed securities, not all subprime loans. The New York Fed figure covers all auto loans on credit reports.
Know the total cost and the term, not just the payment. At the average Q3 2026 new-car loan ($44,664 at 7.0%), stretching from 60 to 84 months cuts the payment by about $210 but adds about $3,560 in interest.
The math:
Sources: Edmunds · New York Fed
A best fit for the situation described, not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Partner links never change a pick.
| Term | Monthly payment | Total interest |
|---|---|---|
| 60 months | $884.40 | $8,400 |
| 72 months | $761.48 | $10,162 |
| 84 months | $674.10 | $11,960 |
$44,664 financed at 7.0% APR (Edmunds Q3 2026 averages). Try your numbers in the auto loan calculator.
Share of each lender's auto loans 30+ days past due, from its own 10-Q:
| Lender | 30+ days | 60+ days | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ally Financial | 4.80% | 1.78% | 10-Q, 2026-06-30 |
| Capital One Auto Finance | 4.76% | not stated | 10-Q, 2026-06-30 |
| Toyota Financial Services (Toyota Motor Credit) | 2.42% | 0.83% | 10-Q, 2026-06-30 |
Portfolio definitions differ (Capital One's rate is its Consumer Banking segment, about 99% auto). Lenders that don't state a rate are omitted. Full table: Lender Tracker.
I spent 11 years in dealership sales and management. The question I heard most was “what payment do you want to be at?” Any payment can be hit by stretching the term, which is why 84-month loans keep growing. Negotiate out-the-door, never the payment, then pick the shortest term you can carry. — Shane
Facts and math, not a forecast or advice. We report published figures with dates. We left out a viral “1 in 5 Americans behind on a loan” claim because we couldn't find its primary source.
$1.713 trillion at the end of June 2026, up $28 billion in the quarter and $58 billion in a year, per the New York Fed. The next update (Q3 2026) is due in early November.
We don't forecast. The published numbers: serious (90+ day) delinquency flow was 3.00% annualized in Q2 2026 vs 2.93% a year earlier, and Fitch's subprime auto ABS 60+ day index set a record 6.65% in October 2025. Prime borrowers were at 0.37% in that Fitch data.
$787 a month for a financed new car in Q3 2026 (Edmunds), on $44,664 financed at 7.0% APR. Experian's Q2 2026 averages: $765 new and $542 used.
25.5% of financed new-car purchases in Q3 2026 had terms of 84 months or longer, a record, up from 21.8% a year earlier (Edmunds).
On $44,664 at 7.0% APR, 84 months lowers the payment by about $210 a month but adds about $3,560 in interest ($11,960 vs $8,400).
Among lenders whose June 30, 2026 10-Qs state a 30+ day rate: Ally 4.80%, Capital One 4.76%, Toyota Motor Credit 2.42%. Lenders define portfolios differently, so compare with care.
We couldn't find a primary source for that viral claim, so we don't use it. The New York Fed reports 4.7% of all household debt was in some stage of delinquency in Q2 2026.
Estimates, not financial advice. Taxes, insurance, PMI and fees vary by lender, county and city; confirm with your lender, dealer and state agency before acting.
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