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When will Social Security run out? What the 2026 Trustees Report saysUpdated October 17, 2026

Direct answer: Social Security is not projected to stop paying. Under current law, the 2026 Trustees Report says the retirement fund's reserves run out in late 2032. After that, taxes still coming in would pay about 78% of scheduled benefits. Both Social Security funds combined: 2034, 83%. A projection, not a forecast.

By the numbers: Full benefits payable until: retirement fund (OASI) 2032 (Q4), then 78% (62% by 2100); combined OASDI 2034 (Q3), then 83%; disability fund (DI) at least through 2100; Medicare hospital fund (HI) 2033 (Q2), then 89%. Source: 2026 Trustees Reports, Table 8

“The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032” — Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, 2026 summary

Updated 2026-10-17

Quick Q&A

When will Social Security run out of money?

It isn't projected to run out of money. The 2026 Trustees Report (June 9, 2026) projects the retirement and survivors trust fund (OASI) can pay full benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032. After its reserves are used up, taxes still coming in would pay about 78% of scheduled benefits, falling to 62% by 2100, unless Congress changes the law.

Will my Social Security check stop in 2032 or 2034?

No. Depletion means the trust fund's savings are used up, not that checks stop. Payroll taxes keep coming in; in 2025 they were about 91% of the retirement fund's income. Under current law that income could pay about 78% of scheduled benefits after late 2032. Combined with the disability fund, full benefits last until the third quarter of 2034, then 83%.

How much would a 22% cut be on an average check?

Simple math with SSA's 2027 average retired-worker benefit of $2,170 a month: 78% is $1,692.60, about $477.40 less. At 83% (the combined-fund figure) it's $1,801.10, about $368.90 less. Real amounts in the 2030s will differ because of future COLAs, and Congress can change the law; this is an illustration, not a forecast.

Figures from the 2026 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports (released June 9, 2026), checked against SSA's pages on Oct. 17, 2026.

Updated Oct. 17, 2026 · 2026 Trustees Report (released June 9, 2026)

Short answer: Social Security is not projected to run out of money or stop paying. The Trustees project the retirement and survivors fund (OASI) can pay 100% of scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032 (October to December 2032). After its savings are used up, payroll taxes still coming in would pay about 78% of scheduled benefits, if Congress doesn't change the law. If the retirement and disability funds were combined, full benefits would last until the third quarter of 2034 (July to September 2034), then about 83%.

This is a current-law projection, not a forecast. It's the Trustees' best estimate if nothing changes; they update it every year. Sources: Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8) · SSA press release (June 9, 2026) · Trustees Report II.D (projections)

Next step: See your own estimate in my Social Security · When to start: 62, 67 or 70? · 2027 raise (3.6% COLA) · Medicare: plans and enrollment

Key facts: what 78% means in dollars

Running out doesn’t mean zero. Under current law, an average retired worker getting $2,170 a month would get about $1,692.60 after the retirement fund's reserves run out (78% of the scheduled amount). That's simple math to show the size, not a prediction of your check.

The math:

SSA's 2027 average retired-worker benefit (after the 3.6% COLA): $2,170 a month (SSA Office of the Chief Actuary estimate; the same figure is on our 2027 COLA page).
Retirement fund (OASI) after late 2032: $2,170 × 78% = $1,692.60 a month, about $477.40 less ($5,728.80 a year).
Both funds combined (OASDI) after mid-2034: $2,170 × 83% = $1,801.10 a month, about $368.90 less ($4,426.80 a year). The combined view needs a change in law to apply.
By 2100 the Trustees' payable share is 62% for OASI ($2,170 × 62% = $1,345.40) and 65% combined ($1,410.50).
Real dollars will differ: future COLAs and wage growth change the scheduled amount by the 2030s. The percentage would apply to whatever is scheduled then.

Sources: Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8) · Trustees Report II.D (projections) · SSA OCACT: 2027 COLA average benefits

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Next steps

Deciding when to start? Compare starting ages with SSA's rules and real numbers: when-to-claim calculator.
Check your own record and estimate in my Social Security (my Social Security). Missing earnings years lower your benefit more than anything on this page.
Watch the next Trustees Report (usually in the spring or early summer). The dates and percentages change every year.

The 2026 Trustees Report at a glance

2032 (Q4)Retirement and survivors fund (OASI) reserves run out; then 78% payable, 62% by 2100

2034 (Q3)Both Social Security funds combined (OASDI); then 83% payable, 65% by 2100

Through 2100Disability fund (DI) pays 100% for the whole 75-year projection

2033 (Q2)Medicare hospital fund (Part A) reserves run out; then 89% payable

Sources: Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8) · SSA press release (June 9, 2026)

Every trust fund: dates and payable shares

Fund	Pays for	Full benefits until	Then payable	In 2100	vs. 2025 report
Retirement and survivors fund (OASI)	Retirement and survivor benefits	2032 (Q4)	78%	62%	One quarter earlier than the 2025 report (was 2033 (Q1))
Disability fund (DI)	Disability benefits	At least through 2100	100% (no shortfall)	100%	Still not projected to run out (was At least through 2099)
Both Social Security funds combined (OASDI)	All Social Security benefits (a combined view; the law keeps the two funds separate)	2034 (Q3)	83%	65%	Same as the 2025 report (was 2034 (Q3))
Medicare hospital fund (HI, Part A)	Hospital stays, skilled nursing and hospice (Part A)	2033 (Q2)	89%	93%	One quarter earlier than the 2025 report (was 2033 (Q3))

Payable share falls to 85% by 2050, then rises to 93% by 2100. Medicare Parts B and D (the SMI fund) don't have a depletion date: premiums and federal general revenue are reset each year to cover costs. Table 8 and Table 10 of the Trustees summary; quarters are calendar quarters (Q4 = October to December). Sources: Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8) · Trustees Report II.D (projections)

Key facts: “running out” doesn’t mean checks stop

No. The trust funds are savings built up from past surpluses. “Depleted” means those savings are used up, so the program can pay only what comes in each year.
Most money comes from workers’ payroll taxes, not the savings. In 2025 the retirement fund took in $1,248.80 billion; $1,130.70 billion (about 91%) was payroll tax. An estimated 184.7 million people paid Social Security payroll taxes.
Why the savings are shrinking: in 2025 the retirement fund paid out $1,448.80 billion, $200 billion more than it took in. Its reserves were $2,338.30 billion at the end of 2025 (both funds: about $2.56 trillion).
Fewer workers per retiree: about 2.6 workers paid in for every person getting benefits in 2025; the Trustees project about 1.9 by 2075.
Under current law, Social Security can’t borrow or pay more than its income plus reserves, so after depletion the payable share is what income can cover.

Sources: Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8) · Trustees Report II.D (projections)

A projection, not a forecast

The dates above use the Trustees’ intermediate (best-estimate) assumptions, set in February 2026, and assume the law doesn’t change. The Trustees also run other scenarios:

Both funds combined: reserves run out in 2048 under their optimistic (low-cost) assumptions and 2032 under their pessimistic (high-cost) ones.
Retirement fund alone: 2035 (low-cost) to 2031 (high-cost).
In 95% of the Trustees’ 5,000 computer simulations, the combined funds run out between 2032 to 2039.

Source: Trustees Report II.D (projections)

Why the date moved from last year

The retirement fund’s date moved one quarter earlier (from early 2033 to late 2032). The combined date stayed at the third quarter of 2034. The Trustees list three main reasons the long-run outlook got worse:

The assumed long-run birth rate was lowered from 1.90 to 1.75 children per woman.
Projected immigration is lower.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 4, 2025) cut income tax rates and raised deductions, so less income tax is collected on Social Security benefits. Part of that tax goes to the trust funds, so they get less money.

The 75-year shortfall for both funds combined is 4.42% of taxable payroll, up from 3.82% in the 2025 report.

Sources: Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8) · SSA press release (June 9, 2026) · Trustees Report II.D (projections)

What the Trustees told Congress

Because the retirement fund is low, the law (Section 709 of the Social Security Act) required the Trustees to send Congress a letter on June 9, 2026. It says the fund’s reserves fall below 20% of a year’s cost by the beginning of 2032 (17% of annual cost at the start of 2032), with depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032 and “only about 78 percent of benefits scheduled in current law” payable then if Congress doesn’t act.

To keep the fund’s reserves from falling below 20% of a year’s cost, the letter says 2032 alone would need about $447.3 billion more payroll tax revenue, or $430.8 billion less benefit cost, or a mix of the two. The Trustees say lawmakers have many options; this page doesn’t take a side on any of them.

Sources: Trustees' Section 709 letter (PDF) · Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8)

What about Medicare?

Part A (hospital) fund: full benefits until the second quarter of 2033 (April to June 2033), then about 89% of costs payable, dipping to 85% by 2050 and rising to 93% by 2100 under current law. It was one quarter later in the 2025 report.
Parts B and D (doctors, outpatient care, drugs) are paid from a different fund that’s refilled every year by premiums and general tax money, so it doesn’t have a run-out date. The Trustees note those costs are rising fast.
Plans, costs and enrollment: our Medicare guide.

Source: Trustees summary (Tables 1 and 8)

Limits of this page

These are the Trustees' intermediate (best-estimate) projections under current law. They are not a forecast: Congress can change the law, and the Trustees update the numbers every year.
The dollar examples apply a percentage to SSA's 2027 average retired-worker estimate ($2,170 a month after the 3.6% COLA). Real benefits in 2032-2034 will be different because of future COLAs and wage growth; the percentage would apply to whatever is scheduled then.
The combined (OASDI) date only applies if the law were changed to let the two funds share money. Under current law each fund pays only its own benefits.
This page is not an SSA estimate of your benefit. Your own estimate is in my Social Security.

Facts and math, not advice, and not an SSA estimate. We republish the Trustees’ current-law projections with dates and do simple percentages. We don’t predict what Congress will do or recommend any change.

Sources & as-of dates

SSA: A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports, Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees (Tables 1, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 10) (2026 reports; read Oct. 17, 2026)
SSA press release: Social Security Board of Trustees: Projection for Combined Trust Funds Remains Consistent with Prior Year (June 9, 2026)
2026 OASDI Trustees Report, section II.D: Projections of Future Financial Status (June 9, 2026; read Oct. 17, 2026)
Board of Trustees: Section 709 letter to the President of the Senate on the OASI Trust Fund (PDF) (June 9, 2026)
SSA Office of the Chief Actuary: Effect of the 2027 COLA on average benefits (average retired worker $2,094 to $2,170) (estimate for December 2026, used on our 2027 COLA page)
SSA: my Social Security (your own earnings record and benefit estimates) (SSA's sign-in site)

FAQ

When will Social Security run out of money?

Will my Social Security check stop in 2032 or 2034?

How much would a 22% cut be on an average check?

Is the disability fund (SSDI) running out?

No. The 2026 Trustees Report projects the Disability Insurance trust fund can pay 100% of scheduled benefits through at least 2100, the end of the 75-year projection.

When does Medicare run out?

Medicare's hospital (Part A) trust fund can pay full benefits until the second quarter of 2033, then about 89% of costs under current law. Parts B and D don't have a depletion date because premiums and general revenue are set each year to cover costs.

Is this a forecast of what will happen?

No. It's the Trustees' best-estimate projection if the law doesn't change. Congress can change taxes, benefits or both, and the Trustees update the projection every year. Their other scenarios put the combined date anywhere from 2032 to 2048.

Facts, not financial advice, and not an SSA benefit estimate. Rules and amounts change yearly; check your own record and estimates at ssa.gov/myaccount.

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